"Changing the order of addends does not change the sum".(с) Basic laws of maths for primary school students.
According to the Constitution of Russia, and at his request, which is no less critical in today's Russian realities, Vladimir Putin will not run in the next presidential election in Russia, which is scheduled for March 17, 2024. This means that there should be a transit of power in Russia from Vladimir Putin to his successor within four and a half years.( Collapse )Dmitrii Ershov, political scientist.Published in David-Arius.Photo: "2024: Regression of the Power".
Vladimir Putin will undoubtedly become one of the longest-serving leaders in modern Russian history. By the time he leaves office in 2024, he will have been head of state for 20 years, including a 4-year 'sabbatical' as head of government. It is more than Leonid Brezhnev's 18-year term, but still much less than Joseph Stalin's - the latter headed the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks - CPSU for 31 years and ruled the country for 23 years without any restrictions.
Of course, to understand the future geopolitical vector of Russia, it is essential to know who will be Vladimir Putin's successor in his position. Generally, the situation with successors in Russian history is quite deplorable. Joseph Stalin, for example, failed to leave a worthy successor and after his, quite possibly even violent, death, the country was headed by Nikita Khrushchev, who defeated almost all "bulldogs under the rug". However, Khrushchev did not last long "under the rug" and, as a result of that same "dogfight" inside the Soviet bureaucratic party system, his place was taken by Leonid Brezhnev.
There are direct parallels between Brezhnev's leadership of the Soviet Union and Putin's leadership of Russia. Both came to power by replacing a predecessor through a backroom struggle. Except that Brezhnev relied on the "party bosses" and Putin on the "Chekists". The political longevity of both is based on the fact that they suited the vast majority within the country's elite. In essence, both Brezhnev and Putin now act as "arbitrators" within the narrow circle of the state elite. Moreover, there is no comparison between the level of Vladimir Putin's powers in 2019 and those of Joseph Stalin in 1950, for example, who ruled the country in one person. Therefore, whomever successor will be, it does not really depend on Putin wishes, but to a large extent on the wishes of the leading state clans, the main of which, as in the times of Leonid Ilyich Brezhnev, is the clan of the central state special service - the KGB back then and the FSB now.
It is well known that after Brezhnev's death, he was succeeded by Yuri Andropov, who was, in fact, the second man in the country and who tried to strengthen Soviet power by "tightening the screws" in the daily lives of its citizens and by fighting corruption within the Soviet elite. There was a brief but palpable whiff of Stalinism at the time. However, after Andropov's equally suspicious death in 1984, the country went tilted, headed first by senile old men like Konstantin Chernenko and then by the "young reformer" Mikhail Gorbachev, who is still alive. It took him a few years to purge, using simple intrigues, security services and the army from more or less sane people and auctioned off the country along with his supporters. The main one of them was no less than the main ideologist of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Alexander Yakovlev.
However, let us go back to our time. Only a madman can seriously begin to fight corruption, which has become the mainstay of the current state system in Russia. The Soviet government no longer exists, and the entire ideology of the government fits into that part of Nikolai Nosov's book "Dunno on the Moon," where the protagonist travels off the internal cavity of our natural satellite. I mean, there is nothing to fight with. At the same time, there are real geopolitical threats, both from the West and from the East. Nevertheless, they are related only to economic, not ideological factors. At the same time, all the state mass media, as well as the Kremlin "talking heads" are screaming about the threat from the West, but the threat from the East, stretching from Nakhodka to Kaliningrad, has only recently been mentioned, when there is not so much Russian left from the Urals to the Pacific Ocean on the territory of the Russian Federation.
So what do we have now in the country before the change of power, especially given the historical peculiarities of this kind of process in Russia? We do not have anything particularly good. Of course, the population, for the most part, is now living better than at any time in Russian history. However, this is only due to global trends because, for example, China's population of one and a half billion is now living better than most Russians. The economy is often developed in an extensive way. The banking sector is, in fact, directly dependent on the international market and any global crisis bursts like a bubble. In the political segment, the stagnation is even worse than in the USSR - at least in the USSR, outright buffoons were not allowed. There is, in essence, no ideology in the country unless, of course, money is seen as an ideological factor. The only plus for the elite is that there are no strong protests in the country, while there is already a relatively strong dissatisfaction with the country's current state. There will be no serious protests as long as the present elite maintains a sufficiently tolerable standard of living for the Russians. However, in case of another serious crisis, there will be a real angry "Vasya" with "Molotov cocktails" instead of hipsters with iPhones strolling down Sakharov Prospect, and we may get an early successor, not the one we were expecting. Moreover, more likely, we may get just another collapse of the country, with a large part of it joining China and Europe and a fireworks display of local wars in the South. However, let us not consider that scenario for now and return to our muttons.